The government is railroading schools into becoming academies and directing what subjects they teach through the English baccalaureate, despite the rhetoric on autonomy
The Easter school holidays are a landmark – and I am not thinking about the build-up to the royal wedding. At their annual conferences, the teacher unions will get their first chance since the general election to voice collective opposition to the coalition government's policies.
But while they are busy condemning the spread of academies and free schools, headteachers and governors will be using the holiday period to ponder whether to join the growing rush towards academy status.
By the time schools return from the holidays, the first anniversary of the coalition government will be virtually upon us. And, make no mistake, for all the talk about boosting school autonomy and ending central interference, it is becoming clear that this government is driving extensive change in the school system.
Twenty years ago, on becoming education secretary Kenneth Clarke complained that "half the levers are missing". He felt unable to affect what happened in thousands of individual schools. Today the levers are all there, and Michael Gove is pulling them like an enthusiastic railway controller.
In particular, he is using the two most powerful levers: finance and accountability targets. Let's begin with finance. The biggest change to the school system right now is the conversion to academy status.
Last month, a poll conducted by the Association of School and College Leaders showed that almost half of secondary schools had either converted or were actively considering doing so. A further 34% of school leaders were undecided, and only 19% remained defiantly against the change.
And what was driving all these schools to consider becoming academies? Of those considering change, 72% said they believed it would help them financially. Only 24% were motivated by dissatisfaction with their local authority.
Headteachers I speak to are quite clear that academy status offers a financial cushion to soften the hard landing that is coming with the April budgets.
Soon, a tipping point will be reached and even the most reluctant will feel unable to resist the tide. Once several large secondary schools have converted, taking their share of central budgets, a local authority will be unable to support those schools that remain.
This is the fear of many primary heads. They do not want to convert, but see an inevitability to it. Anticipating this, some councils even suggested that their schools should convert en masse.
I predict that by the next general election most schools will have become academies. This will be the coalition government's big legacy, far more significant than the relative sideshow of free schools.
And while academy status will benefit many schools, I predict casualties. There have always been some schools that have gone off the rails, but local authorities were usually there to pick up the pieces. In a fragmented, cash-squeezed system, more schools will hit trouble, and who will step in to save them?
Now it could be argued that we are only getting what we voted for. The Conservative 2010 manifesto promised every school "the chance to achieve academy status". But it was meant to be permissive; no one warned schools they would feel stampeded to convert.
The Liberal Democrats would prefer to forget that their manifesto promised to replace academies with their own model of "sponsor-managed schools" commissioned by and accountable to local authorities.
Meanwhile, the other big lever, accountability, is driving curriculum and classroom reform. With the Ebacc, Michael Gove can shape what pupils are taught. It will be much more influential than the national curriculum review, which can be ignored by academies.
Schools are changing their timetable options and focusing their teaching resources to maximise Ebacc scores. It has some positive aspects, not least as a guarantee of minimum curriculum entitlement. But, once again, a Whitehall lever is replacing what should be a local judgment of what is right for particular pupils.
Many other levers have been pulled over the last year: IGCSEs, the pupil premium, discipline rules, the cull of Building Schools for the Future and quangos, and the withdrawal of support for diplomas. All do rather more than just "nudge" change in schools.
So, as we approach the government's first anniversary, be in no doubt that elections do matter and that governments can direct change, even when their rhetoric is all about school autonomy.